Sudan’s Strategic Domino Effect: How One Town’s Fall Could Reshape an Entire War

The capture of Babonusa by Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces marks a pivotal moment that military analysts fear could trigger a cascade of strategic losses for government forces across West Kordofan.

The Chess Pieces Fall

Sudan’s brutal civil war, now in its second year, has evolved from urban warfare in Khartoum to a grinding territorial contest across the country’s vast peripheries. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo “Hemedti,” have systematically expanded their control westward, employing a strategy of isolating government-held cities before moving in for the capture. Babonusa, a modest town in West Kordofan state, represents far more than its geographic footprint suggests—it serves as a critical logistics hub and defensive buffer for the regional capital, Al-Obeid.

The fall of Babonusa follows a pattern established by the RSF throughout 2024: surround, squeeze, and seize. By cutting supply lines and controlling surrounding territories, the paramilitary group has effectively turned government-held cities into islands, vulnerable and increasingly desperate. This tactical approach has proven devastatingly effective in Darfur and is now being replicated in Kordofan, where the RSF’s mobility and local knowledge provide significant advantages over the conventional Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF).

Al-Obeid: The Next Domino?

Al-Obeid, West Kordofan’s capital and Sudan’s eighth-largest city, now finds itself in an increasingly precarious position. Home to approximately 400,000 people and a major commercial center, the city’s potential isolation represents not just a military setback but a humanitarian catastrophe in the making. The loss of Babonusa severs one of the last reliable supply routes, potentially trapping civilians and government forces alike in what could become a prolonged siege.

The strategic implications extend far beyond West Kordofan. Control of Al-Obeid would give the RSF dominance over a region rich in livestock and agricultural resources, while also providing a launching pad for operations into South Kordofan—home to Sudan’s crucial oil fields. This geographic advantage could fundamentally alter the economic dynamics of the conflict, providing the RSF with resources to sustain their campaign while denying the government vital revenues.

The Wider War’s New Trajectory

The RSF’s consolidation in West Kordofan signals a troubling shift in Sudan’s conflict dynamics. Unlike the early months of fighting concentrated in Khartoum, the war has metastasized into a decentralized struggle where control of peripheral regions may ultimately determine the outcome. The paramilitary group’s ability to project power across vast distances while maintaining local support networks has exposed fundamental weaknesses in the SAF’s conventional military structure.

International observers note that this territorial expansion complicates any potential peace negotiations. Each captured town and city creates new facts on the ground, entrenching divisions that make a unified Sudan increasingly difficult to envision. The humanitarian toll continues to mount, with over 10 million displaced and entire regions cut off from aid access. As the RSF tightens its grip on western Sudan, the prospect of a negotiated settlement grows more distant.

As Sudan fragments along military lines, with the RSF controlling vast swathes of the west while the government clings to the north and east, one must ask: Is the international community witnessing not just a civil war, but the violent birth of multiple Sudans?