Sudan’s Crisis Deepens: Can Regional Powers Contain the Spread of Radical Islamism Before It’s Too Late?

The growing influence of radical Islamist ideology within Sudan’s Armed Forces threatens to transform a brutal civil war into a regional security nightmare that neighboring states can no longer afford to ignore.

A Nation at War with Itself

Sudan’s ongoing conflict, which erupted in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has already claimed thousands of lives and displaced millions. What began as a power struggle between two military factions has evolved into something far more complex and dangerous. The infiltration of radical Islamist elements within SAF ranks represents not just an ideological shift, but a potential transformation of the conflict’s very nature—from a civil war over political control to a broader ideological battle that could spill across borders.

The roots of this development trace back to Sudan’s complicated relationship with political Islam. Under Omar al-Bashir’s three-decade rule, Islamist networks became deeply embedded within state institutions, particularly the military. While the 2019 revolution that ousted Bashir promised a secular, democratic transition, the current conflict has created a vacuum that these dormant networks are now exploiting. As the SAF struggles to maintain cohesion and legitimacy, radical elements are positioning themselves as defenders of Islamic identity against what they portray as secular or Western-backed forces.

Regional Dominos Waiting to Fall

The implications for Sudan’s neighbors are stark. Egypt, already grappling with security concerns in Sinai, fears that a radicalized SAF could provide safe haven for extremist groups. Ethiopia, dealing with its own internal conflicts, worries about the potential for cross-border militant activity. Chad and Libya, both struggling with fragile state institutions, could see their own extremist movements emboldened by developments in Sudan.

The humanitarian crisis compounds these security concerns. With over 7 million internally displaced persons and nearly 2 million refugees fleeing to neighboring countries, the strain on regional resources is creating conditions ripe for radicalization. Refugee camps, overwhelmed and under-resourced, risk becoming recruitment grounds for extremist groups. The longer the conflict persists, the more entrenched these networks become, making any eventual peace process exponentially more difficult.

The Mediation Imperative

Regional powers face a critical choice: engage now in meaningful mediation efforts or risk dealing with a far more complex crisis later. The African Union, Arab League, and individual states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have attempted various peace initiatives, but these efforts have been hampered by competing interests and lack of coordination. Egypt’s military ties to the SAF and the UAE’s alleged support for the RSF have complicated neutral mediation efforts.

What’s needed is a unified regional approach that addresses not just the immediate cessation of hostilities, but the underlying ideological shifts within Sudan’s military institutions. This requires more than traditional diplomacy—it demands a comprehensive strategy that includes counter-radicalization programs, economic incentives for peace, and guarantees for inclusive governance that can appeal to moderate elements within both warring factions.

A Ticking Clock

Time is not on the region’s side. Intelligence reports suggest that radical Islamist factions within the SAF are consolidating their positions, establishing parallel command structures, and developing international connections with extremist groups in the Sahel and Horn of Africa. The longer neighboring states hesitate, the more entrenched these networks become, potentially transforming Sudan from a failed state into an extremist stronghold at the heart of Africa.

The international community’s attention, largely focused on conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, has given regional extremist movements space to organize and expand. This neglect could prove catastrophic, as Sudan’s strategic location—bordering seven countries and controlling vital Nile water resources—makes it a potential launching pad for regional destabilization.

As Sudan teeters on the brink of becoming Africa’s newest ungoverned space, one question looms large: Will regional powers overcome their rivalries and conflicting interests in time to prevent Sudan’s collapse from igniting a broader conflagration, or will they wake up to find that the cancer of extremism has already metastasized beyond their borders?