Iraq’s Armed Factions Defy Disarmament: A Test for Baghdad’s Sovereignty and Washington’s Influence
The Al-Nujaba Movement’s defiant stance against disarmament reveals the fragile balance between Iraqi sovereignty, Iranian influence, and American presence in a nation still grappling with its post-ISIS identity.
The Shadow Army That Won’t Fade
Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), including groups like Al-Nujaba, emerged as heroes during the fight against ISIS between 2014 and 2017. These Iran-backed militias filled the security vacuum when Iraq’s regular army collapsed, earning them both battlefield credentials and political legitimacy. Today, they represent a parallel military structure that challenges the Iraqi government’s monopoly on force while maintaining deep ties to Tehran’s regional strategy.
Al-Nujaba, designated as a terrorist organization by the United States in 2019, operates in the gray zone between state-sanctioned force and independent militia. The group’s leader, Akram al-Kaabi, has consistently aligned with Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” positioning his fighters as defenders against what he calls American occupation. This latest declaration of continued resistance comes at a particularly sensitive time, as Iraq navigates between its security partnership with Washington and growing pressure from Tehran-aligned factions.
Baghdad’s Impossible Balancing Act
The Iraqi government finds itself trapped between competing imperatives. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani must maintain the U.S. military presence that provides crucial training and intelligence support while appeasing powerful militias that helped save the country from ISIS but now threaten its stability. These groups command significant political influence through their political wings in parliament and control lucrative economic sectors, from border crossings to construction contracts.
Recent rocket attacks on U.S. facilities, claimed by groups affiliated with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, demonstrate how quickly these tensions can escalate. Each attack triggers American retaliation, followed by Iraqi condemnation of sovereignty violations, creating a cycle that undermines the government’s authority. The refusal to disarm represents more than military defiance—it’s a rejection of the post-2003 state structure that these groups view as illegitimate and Western-imposed.
Regional Implications Beyond Baghdad
Al-Nujaba’s stance reflects broader regional dynamics as Iran seeks to maintain its “forward defense” strategy through proxy forces. These militias serve as Tehran’s insurance policy against potential military action while providing plausible deniability for operations against U.S. interests. Their integration into Iraq’s security apparatus has created what some analysts call a “state within a state,” similar to Hezbollah’s role in Lebanon.
The international community watches nervously as Iraq risks becoming a permanent battlefield for U.S.-Iran tensions. European allies worry about refugee flows and extremist resurgence if stability collapses. Gulf states fear an Iraq dominated by Iranian proxies on their borders. Meanwhile, ordinary Iraqis, exhausted by decades of conflict, find their country’s sovereignty held hostage by armed groups claiming to defend it.
As Iraq approaches the 2025 deadline for the U.S.-led coalition’s departure, the question looms larger: Can Baghdad assert control over its armed factions, or will groups like Al-Nujaba ultimately determine Iraq’s future trajectory—leaving the nation forever suspended between sovereignty and proxy warfare?
