Syria’s New Order Faces Old Demons: The Paradox of Fighting Yesterday’s Allies
The Syrian government’s reliance on Iraqi intelligence to prevent attacks by former rebel allies reveals the fragile foundation of post-Assad Syria’s security architecture.
A Complex Web of Former Fighters
The reported intelligence cooperation between Baghdad and Damascus marks a significant shift in regional dynamics, particularly given Iraq’s historically fraught relationship with Syria during the civil war years. According to the Lebanese newspaper An-Nahar, Iraqi security services provided crucial intelligence approximately six months ago that helped Syrian authorities disrupt assassination plots against President Ahmad al-Shar’ (formerly known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani) and prevent sectarian attacks across Syria.
What makes this cooperation particularly striking is the nature of the threat itself. The alleged conspirators are described as former fighters of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)—the very organization that al-Shar’ once led and which played a pivotal role in overthrowing the Assad regime. Some of these fighters have reportedly rejoined ISIS, creating a security nightmare for Syria’s new leadership as they face threats from their own former comrades-in-arms.
The Challenge of Post-Revolutionary Governance
This security crisis illuminates a fundamental challenge facing Syria’s transitional government: how to maintain stability when yesterday’s revolutionary allies become today’s security threats. The reported defection of HTS fighters to ISIS suggests deep fractures within the coalition that brought al-Shar’ to power. These divisions may stem from ideological differences, power struggles, or disappointment with the new government’s pragmatic approach to governance.
The reliance on Iraqi intelligence also highlights Syria’s current security vulnerabilities. Despite controlling most of Syrian territory, the new government appears to lack the intelligence capabilities to independently monitor and neutralize internal threats. This dependence on external partners, while necessary in the short term, raises questions about Syria’s sovereignty and the long-term sustainability of its security arrangements.
Regional Implications and the Sectarian Question
The reported plans for “simultaneous sectarian attacks” suggest that extremist elements are attempting to reignite Syria’s communal tensions. After years of devastating conflict that often fell along sectarian lines, any return to such violence could unravel the fragile peace that has emerged. The fact that Iraq—a country that has its own painful history with sectarian violence—is helping Syria prevent such attacks demonstrates a shared regional interest in stability.
This cooperation between Baghdad and Damascus may signal a broader realignment in the Middle East, where pragmatic security concerns override historical animosities. It also reflects Iraq’s emergence as a regional intelligence hub, leveraging its experience fighting ISIS to assist neighbors facing similar threats.
As Syria navigates this treacherous transition from revolutionary movement to functioning state, the question remains: can a government born from insurgency successfully transform its former fighters into citizens, or will the cycle of radicalization and violence continue to haunt Syria’s future?
