When Submarines Strike Ships: The Dangerous Normalization of Covert Maritime Warfare

The reported Israeli submarine drone strikes on civilian vessels near Tunisia represent a troubling escalation in the shadow war that threatens to transform international waters into ungoverned battlefields.

A New Theater of Conflict

The alleged September 8-9 drone attacks on The Family and The Alma vessels near Tunisia’s Sidi Bou Said port mark a significant evolution in maritime warfare tactics. If confirmed, these strikes would represent one of the first known instances of submarine-launched drone attacks on civilian shipping in peacetime waters. The targeting of Portuguese and British-flagged vessels in North African waters far from any active conflict zone suggests a dramatic expansion of what military strategists consider acceptable operational theaters.

This incident occurs against the backdrop of increasing maritime tensions across the Mediterranean and Red Sea regions. Recent months have witnessed a surge in attacks on commercial shipping, from Houthi strikes in the Bab el-Mandeb strait to mysterious explosions affecting vessels linked to various Middle Eastern actors. The submarine element adds a particularly concerning dimension—underwater platforms operating with near-impunity can project force while remaining virtually undetectable to civilian maritime traffic.

The Erosion of Maritime Norms

International maritime law, codified through centuries of precedent and formalized in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, rests on the principle that civilian vessels enjoy freedom of navigation and protection from military interference during peacetime. These reported strikes, if verified, would represent a fundamental challenge to this order. The use of drones launched from submarines introduces a level of deniability and technological sophistication that makes attribution difficult and accountability nearly impossible.

The choice of location—waters near a neutral North African nation—sends a chilling message about the reach of modern military capabilities. Tunisia, which has worked to maintain neutrality in regional conflicts, suddenly finds its ports potentially transformed into zones of international confrontation. This geographical expansion of conflict zones threatens the delicate balance that allows global commerce to function, with over 90% of traded goods traveling by sea.

Policy Implications and International Response

The international community faces a critical choice in responding to such incidents. Silence or muted diplomatic protests risk normalizing these tactics, potentially opening the door to copycat operations by state and non-state actors alike. Yet direct confrontation carries its own risks in an already volatile region. The involvement of European-flagged vessels should, in theory, trigger a robust response from EU nations and NATO allies, but the complexity of attribution in submarine warfare provides convenient diplomatic cover for inaction.

The technological dimension cannot be ignored. If submarines can launch precision drone strikes while submerged, the calculus of naval power projection fundamentally changes. Smaller nations or non-state actors with access to such capabilities could theoretically threaten shipping lanes that serve as arteries of global commerce. The proliferation of these dual-use technologies—submarines and naval drones—presents arms control challenges that existing treaties are ill-equipped to address.

The Shadow War Goes Underwater

This incident exemplifies the growing trend of “grey zone” warfare—military actions that fall below the threshold of conventional war but above normal peacetime competition. By operating in this ambiguous space, actors can pursue strategic objectives while avoiding the risks and international opprobrium associated with open conflict. Maritime domains are particularly susceptible to such tactics due to jurisdictional complexities and the vast areas involved.

The psychological impact on commercial shipping cannot be understated. Insurance rates for vessels operating in the Eastern Mediterranean and Red Sea regions have already spiked due to recent incidents. If submarine-launched drone attacks become a regular feature of these waters, the economic implications could ripple through global supply chains, affecting everything from energy prices to consumer goods availability.

Looking Forward

As we witness the potential normalization of submarine drone warfare against civilian targets, fundamental questions about the future of maritime security emerge. Will the international community develop new frameworks to address these hybrid threats, or will we see a return to an earlier era when merchant vessels required military escorts to traverse contested waters? The answer may determine whether the freedom of navigation that has underpinned global prosperity for decades can survive the technological and tactical innovations of modern conflict.