As Iran’s Grip Weakens, Israel Emerges as an Unlikely Regional Stabilizer
A tectonic shift appears to be underway in the Middle East, where traditional alliances are crumbling and former adversaries are finding common ground against Iranian influence.
The Unraveling of the “Axis of Resistance”
For decades, Iran has cultivated a network of proxy forces and allied governments stretching from Tehran to the Mediterranean, often referred to as the “Axis of Resistance.” This alliance, which includes Hezbollah in Lebanon, various militias in Syria and Iraq, and until recently, a cooperative government in Damascus, has long served as Iran’s primary tool for projecting power across the region. However, recent developments suggest this carefully constructed edifice may be showing signs of structural weakness.
The sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria represents perhaps the most dramatic rupture in this network. Syria has served as the crucial land bridge connecting Iran to its Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah, facilitating the transfer of weapons, funds, and personnel. Without Assad’s cooperative regime, Iran’s ability to resupply and reinforce Hezbollah becomes significantly more complicated, potentially reshaping the balance of power in the Levant.
A Regional Realignment in Progress
The ripple effects of Syria’s transformation extend far beyond its borders. In Lebanon, there are increasing signs of public fatigue with Hezbollah’s dominance over the country’s political system. The organization’s involvement in regional conflicts, combined with Lebanon’s ongoing economic crisis, has eroded its once-formidable popular support. Lebanese civil society groups and political parties that once remained silent are now more vocal in their opposition to Hezbollah’s parallel state structures.
Perhaps most remarkably, this regional recalibration has coincided with a gradual shift in how some Arab and Muslim-majority nations view Israel. The reported statement from Indonesia—the world’s largest Muslim-majority nation—affirming Israel’s right to security and peace would have been unthinkable just a few years ago. This follows the Abraham Accords of 2020, which saw several Arab states normalize relations with Israel, partly driven by shared concerns about Iranian expansionism.
From Enemy to Partner?
The perception of Israel as a “stabilizing force” rather than a destabilizing one marks a profound psychological shift in regional dynamics. For many Arab governments, the calculation appears straightforward: Iran’s revolutionary ideology and support for non-state armed groups poses a more immediate threat to their stability than the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This pragmatic reassessment has led to unprecedented security cooperation, intelligence sharing, and even public diplomatic engagement between Israel and its former adversaries.
This transformation is particularly evident in the Gulf states, where concerns about Iran’s nuclear program and regional ambitions have overshadowed traditional solidarity with Palestinian causes. The willingness of countries like the UAE and Bahrain to openly engage with Israel has created a permissive environment for other nations to reconsider their own positions.
The Implications of a New Middle Eastern Order
If these trends continue, we may be witnessing the emergence of a fundamentally different Middle East—one where sectarian and ideological divisions matter less than pragmatic security concerns. This realignment could have profound implications for everything from energy markets to counterterrorism cooperation to the prospects for Israeli-Palestinian peace.
However, this shift is far from complete or irreversible. Popular opinion in many Arab countries remains skeptical of normalization with Israel, and the Palestinian issue continues to resonate emotionally across the region. Iran, despite its current challenges, retains significant capabilities and could attempt to reassert its influence through asymmetric means.
As the dust settles on these dramatic changes, one question looms large: Is the Middle East witnessing a temporary tactical adjustment driven by immediate security concerns, or are we seeing the beginning of a more fundamental transformation that could reshape the region’s political landscape for generations to come?
