Syria’s Pivot to Israel: The Unthinkable Alliance Reshaping Middle Eastern Geopolitics

In a stunning reversal of decades of hostility, Syria’s post-Assad leadership is racing toward security agreements with its historic enemy Israel, signaling a tectonic shift in regional alignments that would have been unimaginable just two years ago.

From Perpetual Conflict to Pragmatic Partnership

For over half a century, Syria and Israel existed in a state of technical war, with the Golan Heights serving as both a physical and symbolic frontier of their mutual antagonism. Under the Assad dynasty, Syria positioned itself as the vanguard of Arab resistance against Israel, hosting Palestinian militant groups and serving as Iran’s strategic bridge to Hezbollah in Lebanon. The two nations fought major wars in 1967 and 1973, and their border remained one of the world’s most militarized zones.

The fall of Bashar al-Assad has apparently unleashed a dramatic recalibration of Syrian foreign policy. With the country devastated by over a decade of civil war and facing the monumental task of reconstruction, Syria’s new leadership appears to be prioritizing economic recovery and regional stability over ideological commitments. This pragmatic turn reflects both the exhaustion of the Syrian state and the changing dynamics of Middle Eastern politics, where economic interests increasingly trump historical grievances.

The Regional Domino Effect

Syria’s move toward normalization with Israel follows the Abraham Accords blueprint, which saw the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan establish diplomatic relations with Israel between 2020 and 2021. However, Syria’s potential alignment carries far greater strategic weight. As the historical heartland of Arab nationalism and a key node in the “Axis of Resistance” linking Iran to its proxies, Syria’s defection would fundamentally alter the regional balance of power.

For Israel, security agreements with Syria would achieve what decades of military operations could not: the effective neutralization of a primary threat on its northern border. Such deals would likely involve Syrian commitments to prevent Iranian military entrenchment and arms transfers to Hezbollah, in exchange for Israeli acquiescence to Syrian sovereignty and possibly economic incentives. The timing is particularly significant as Israel faces growing threats from Iran’s nuclear program and seeks to isolate Tehran’s regional network.

The Stakes for Syria’s Future

For Syria’s new government, the calculus appears straightforward: isolation and continued conflict guarantee economic stagnation, while engagement with Israel opens doors to Western investment and regional integration. The country requires an estimated $400 billion for reconstruction, funds that will never materialize without normalized relations with the West and its regional allies. Security agreements with Israel could serve as Syria’s ticket back into the international community.

Yet this pragmatic approach carries enormous risks. Syrian public opinion, shaped by generations of anti-Israel sentiment, may not readily accept such a dramatic reversal. The legitimacy of any post-Assad government could be severely tested by accusations of betraying the Palestinian cause and Arab solidarity. Moreover, Iran and its allies will not passively accept the loss of their Syrian corridor, potentially destabilizing the fragile new order through proxy groups or direct intervention.

A New Middle East in the Making?

Syria’s potential realignment represents more than a bilateral agreement; it signals the possible emergence of a new regional architecture. With Egypt, Jordan, and several Gulf states already at peace with Israel, and now Syria potentially joining this camp, the traditional Arab-Israeli conflict framework is dissolving into a more complex mosaic of competing alliances centered on the Iran-Saudi rivalry.

This shift reflects broader global trends where ideological blocs are giving way to interest-based coalitions. The Middle East, long frozen in historical conflicts, may be entering an era of fluid alignments driven by economic needs, security concerns, and technological partnerships. For the United States and other external powers, this creates both opportunities and challenges in managing a more multipolar regional system.

As Syria negotiates its entry into this new order, the fundamental question remains: Can a peace built on pragmatism and exhaustion prove more durable than one based on justice and mutual recognition, or are we witnessing merely another temporary arrangement destined to collapse under the weight of unresolved historical grievances?