Trump’s Turkey Gambit: When Military Sales Trump Democratic Values
The White House’s red carpet for Erdoğan signals that defense contracts now outweigh concerns about Turkey’s democratic backsliding and regional provocations.
A Complicated Alliance Under Strain
The U.S.-Turkey relationship has been on a roller coaster for the past decade, marked by fundamental disagreements over Syria policy, Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 missile systems, and Ankara’s increasingly authoritarian drift under President Erdoğan. Turkey’s acquisition of the S-400 in 2019 led to its expulsion from the F-35 fighter jet program, a move that cost American defense contractors billions and left NATO’s second-largest military searching for alternatives. Now, with Trump dangling the possibility of renewed F-35 discussions alongside F-16 sales and Boeing aircraft deals, we’re witnessing a potential reset driven more by commercial interests than strategic alignment.
The Price of Reengagement
The timing of this meeting is particularly striking. Turkey continues to block Sweden’s NATO membership, maintains complex relationships with Russia despite the Ukraine war, and has cracked down on political opposition at home. Yet the promise of lucrative defense contracts appears to be smoothing over these friction points. The F-16 deal alone could be worth over $20 billion, while Boeing aircraft purchases could add billions more to American coffers. For Erdoğan, securing advanced American weaponry would be a significant diplomatic victory, potentially giving him leverage in regional conflicts from Syria to the Eastern Mediterranean.
This transactional approach reflects a broader pattern in Trump’s foreign policy, where traditional concerns about human rights and democratic governance take a backseat to immediate economic benefits. The enthusiasm for “historically strong” ties glosses over Turkey’s jailing of journalists, suppression of Kurdish political movements, and erosion of judicial independence. It also sidesteps the strategic incoherence of selling advanced weapons to a country that still operates Russian air defense systems designed specifically to track and target American aircraft.
Regional Ripple Effects
The implications of this rapprochement extend far beyond bilateral trade. Greece and Cyprus will watch nervously as their NATO ally Turkey potentially acquires more advanced American weaponry, given ongoing tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean. Israel, despite its own complex relationship with Turkey, may worry about the regional balance of power shifting. Meanwhile, Russia will be observing whether American arms sales can pull Turkey back into the Western orbit or whether Erdoğan will continue his balancing act between East and West.
For NATO, the prospect of Turkey returning to the F-35 program raises technical and security challenges. How can the alliance ensure that one of its most advanced fighter jets won’t be compromised by Russian S-400 radars? The Pentagon has spent years reconfiguring F-35 logistics and maintenance networks to exclude Turkey; reversing course would be costly and complex.
As Washington prepares to roll out the red carpet for Erdoğan, we must ask ourselves: In the rush to secure defense contracts and claim diplomatic wins, are we inadvertently enabling autocrats and undermining the very values our alliances were built to defend?
