The Somaliland Paradox: Why U.S. Recognition Could Strengthen Regional Security Rather Than Destabilize It

In a counterintuitive twist to conventional diplomatic wisdom, recognizing a breakaway region might actually diminish rather than inflame extremist threats in the Horn of Africa.

The Unrecognized Success Story

For over three decades, Somaliland has functioned as a de facto independent state, maintaining relative peace and democratic governance while its parent nation, Somalia, has become synonymous with state failure and terrorism. Despite lacking international recognition, this self-declared republic in the Horn of Africa has built functioning institutions, held multiple peaceful elections, and maintained security within its borders—achievements that stand in stark contrast to the chaos that has engulfed much of Somalia since 1991.

The debate over Somaliland’s recognition has long been frozen by a diplomatic catch-22: Western powers fear that recognizing the territory’s independence could set a dangerous precedent for separatist movements worldwide and potentially destabilize an already fragile region. Yet analyst Michael Rubin’s recent policy report challenges this orthodoxy, suggesting that continued non-recognition may actually be feeding the very instability it aims to prevent.

Rethinking the Al-Shabaab Threat

The conventional argument against recognizing Somaliland rests heavily on concerns about Al-Shabaab, the Somalia-based terrorist group affiliated with Al-Qaeda. Critics worry that formal recognition would provide the extremist group with a rallying cry, allowing them to exploit nationalist sentiments and recruit fighters under the banner of defending Somalia’s territorial integrity. However, Rubin’s analysis turns this logic on its head, arguing that Al-Shabaab’s power stems not from popular nationalism but from the corrupt and dysfunctional governance structures in Mogadishu.

This perspective aligns with broader research on extremist movements in failed states. Al-Shabaab has thrived precisely because the internationally recognized Somali government has failed to provide basic services, security, or legitimate governance to much of its claimed territory. The group fills this vacuum by offering brutal but predictable order, Islamic courts, and basic services in areas under its control. In this context, strengthening functional governance—even if it means recognizing Somaliland’s independence—could actually undermine rather than enhance Al-Shabaab’s appeal.

The Strategic Implications

The timing of this debate is particularly significant given the shifting geopolitical landscape in the Horn of Africa. China has established its first overseas military base in neighboring Djibouti, while Russia and Turkey have increased their presence in the region. The United Arab Emirates has already established a military base in Somaliland’s port of Berbera, demonstrating that some international actors are willing to engage with the unrecognized state despite its diplomatic limbo.

For the United States, recognizing Somaliland could offer several strategic advantages: a stable partner in a volatile region, a democratic ally in a neighborhood of autocrats, and potentially, a new base for counterterrorism operations. Moreover, it would reward good governance and democracy—sending a powerful message in a region where such examples are desperately needed.

The question isn’t whether recognizing Somaliland would be controversial—it certainly would be. The African Union has long opposed any border changes, fearing a cascade of secessionist movements. However, Somaliland’s case is unique: it is seeking recognition within colonial borders (those of former British Somaliland) and has maintained stability for longer than many recognized African states.

A Test of Diplomatic Courage?

As policymakers weigh these arguments, they must grapple with a fundamental question about the nature of sovereignty and stability in the 21st century. If the international community continues to insist on the fiction of Somalia’s territorial integrity while ignoring the reality of Somaliland’s three-decade experiment in self-governance, are we prioritizing abstract principles over practical solutions that could enhance regional security and provide a model for democratic development in Africa?