Yemen’s Southern Question: Why Peace Talks Keep Failing by Ignoring Half the Country
As international mediators chase another elusive Yemen peace deal, a powerful southern leader’s warning from Yafa’a exposes the fatal flaw in every failed negotiation: pretending the country’s deep north-south divide doesn’t exist.
The Voice from the South
President Aydarus bin Qassem Al-Zubaidi’s message from Yafa’a—a mountainous region with deep historical significance in Yemen’s southern resistance movements—represents more than regional posturing. As leader of the Southern Transitional Council (STC), Al-Zubaidi commands significant military forces and governs much of what was once South Yemen, an independent state until 1990. His choice of Yafa’a as a backdrop is deliberate: this region has been a cradle of southern resistance for generations, from anti-British colonial struggles to contemporary separatist movements.
The timing of this message is crucial. As Saudi Arabia and Oman push for renewed peace negotiations between the internationally recognized government and Houthi rebels, southern leaders increasingly feel marginalized. Despite controlling Yemen’s temporary capital Aden and much of the south’s territory, the STC has often been treated as a junior partner rather than a primary stakeholder in peace processes. This systematic exclusion has repeatedly undermined diplomatic efforts, creating agreements that look good on paper but collapse upon implementation.
The Colonial Ghost That Haunts Modern Yemen
Yemen’s current crisis cannot be understood without grappling with its divided past. South Yemen existed as an independent Marxist state from 1967 to 1990, developing distinct political institutions, social norms, and regional identity. The 1990 unification was supposed to create a democratic republic, but southern leaders argue it quickly devolved into northern domination. The brief 1994 civil war, which crushed southern secession attempts, only deepened these wounds. Today’s southern movement draws on this history, presenting itself not as rebels but as a people seeking to restore their sovereignty.
International mediators often treat Yemen’s conflict as primarily a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, focusing on the Houthi-government divide while minimizing the north-south dimension. This framing serves diplomatic convenience but ignores ground realities. The south controls most of Yemen’s oil resources, its strategic ports, and maritime routes. Any sustainable peace must account for southern aspirations, whether through genuine power-sharing, federalism, or even partition.
Why This Matters Beyond Yemen
Al-Zubaidi’s warning carries implications far beyond Yemen’s borders. The country sits at the strategic Bab el-Mandeb strait, through which nearly 10% of global maritime trade passes. Southern forces currently secure this vital chokepoint, giving them leverage that pure military might cannot provide. Moreover, the UAE’s backing of southern forces has created a parallel power structure that often operates more effectively than the official government, raising questions about sovereignty and international recognition in an era of hybrid warfare.
The repeated failure to include southern voices substantively in peace talks reflects a broader pattern in international conflict resolution: the tendency to preserve existing borders and power structures even when they lack legitimacy among significant populations. From Sudan to Syria, externally imposed solutions that ignore deep regional divisions tend to produce frozen conflicts rather than lasting peace.
As Yemen enters its tenth year of war, Al-Zubaidi’s message from Yafa’a poses an uncomfortable question for international peacemakers: Is preserving Yemen’s unity worth perpetuating a conflict that has created the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, or is it time to acknowledge that some divisions run too deep for diplomatic bridges?
